Wuhan Virus, Panic or Over Hyped?
There seem to be two camps when it comes to the Wuhan virus, sometimes called the Corona Virus in an attempt to get people to forget the origin of the virus, either outright panic or the opposite, that the flu kills more people each year.
And the latter is correct, we are going to lose 80,000 from the flu in any given year we have a bad strain. Flu is influenza, the origins of the word is 14th century Italy and means “Influence of the stars” as they had superstitions and little science to go on.
- There is no vaccine. Flu vaccines aren't perfect, 50% effective at best, but it helps a lot.
- Humans have not built up immunities over many generations of exposure
- Wuhan flu leaves massive lung damage in about 30% of the hospitalized cases which are about 10% of those that get infected or about 2 to 3% of the total infected. 20 to 30% of lung capacity can be lost.
- The mortality rate for the common flue is about one tenth of one percent. Wuhan flue is hitting between 2 and 3.4% mortality even in first world countries. However there is a vast differences between the number exposed to flu and the numbers exposed to Wuhan flu.
Right now Italy is the hot spot in the world. There are large numbers of Chinese workers living in Northern Italy in the textile and leather industries, cheap imported labor that traveled home to China for the Chinese New Year and they brought the virus back with them. Italy has a very high number of over 65 year old people and the population in general is older than many countries, these elderly people will have more medical conditions already existing and will be hit harder than younger more healthy people. Thirdly, Italy has been overrun with refugees from third world countries that harbor more diseases as they came in without the standard immigration shot record and health examination.
As of 2 pm today, March 15th, 2020, Italy has over 24,000 cases, 1809 have died, 2335 have recovered so far, with 18,931 of the cases being mild cases and 1672 cases being serious (9%)
The U.S. as of today at 2 pm has 3207 cases, 122 closed cases, which 59 recovered and 63 dead. That is a 53% death rate. Scary as hell, but the good news is that of the 3197 active cases, only 10 cases are severe. We might have a weakened version of the virus.
If China's released statistics are to be trusted they have about 81,000 so far with 67,000 recovered and another 10,000 still active cases. About 95% of those infected recovered. It seems that quarantine works very well. A great source to up to date stats on the Wuhan virus is at this link.
The CDC's worst case scenario is that 38,000,000 Americans might need hospitalization. If so, we are screwed and we will have to do as Italy is doing as your read this, anyone over 80 years old is put on oxygen if they have it and morphine and allowed to die. The mortality of the Wuhan virus world wide is nearly 15% for those over 80 years of age for confirmed cases and nearly 22% for all cases of Wuhan virus but the death rate drops down to under under a half of a percent for those 40 years old and under. Men are nearly twice as likely to die than women and if you have other illnesses like heart disease, diabetes, hypertension, cancer or respiratory problems your chances of dying go up between 5 and 13%.
But, that 38,000,000 number is indeed a worst case and more likely is one tenth or one one hundredth or 380,000. Italy has about sixty million in population and so far has had only 1800 deaths with the caveat that around 300 per day are now dying. In the countries that had the virus in the beginning the number of cases and number of deaths form a near perfect bell curve as the disease ramps up then stalls out as quarantine takes place and begins dropping as rapidly as it came on.
But the worst part of Wuhan virus is the long term damage it can leave behind in severe cases. About 25% of the hospitalized cases will sustain about 30% lower lung capacity due to the damage caused by the disease. Cat scans of normal lungs look black, those severely affected by the virus look like marbled meat, sometimes scattered spots, sometimes vast spiderwebs of interstitial water that isn't in the air sacs but trapped between cell walls.
Why are we dealing with it, where did it come from?
We try to stay away from conjecture and conspiracy but... if you were China, dealing with a growing number of elderly followed by a twenty year gap due to the one child policy and are on track to grow old as a country before they grow rich, what better way to prune the generational disparity than creating a virus that targets the elderly? Pension payments are slashed along with long term health care on the elderly. Then the bonus, you let it loose in time to catch the return of the Chinese workers from other countries and send them back across the world as carriers. You keep your military quarantined, wait out the spread knowing that your closed society can easily be shut down and kept shut down. Then in the U.S. and Europe you devastate the economies and weaken the military. Then you remind them all that China produces the raw materials for the vast majority of medicines and supplies.
Your typical Chinese eats anything that flies, crawls, or walks. Bat soup, a staple for centuries, not the source. More likely the bio lab that is in Wuhan, either accidental released or done on purpose.
What do we do for ourselves and our families?
You isolate yourself as much as possible. Quarantine helps by limiting the number exposed but it also helps spread the number of serious cases out over time, ensuring that hospitals are not overwhelmed. Without quarantine you get a sharp spike of cases and people die in the hallways of the hospitals. With quarantine you might ultimately have quite a few deaths the hospitals are also able to better handle the influx of severe cases. You have a finite hospital capacity, beds, respirators, anti viral meds. Staying below that limit means each case gets all possible assistance.
Life will be difficult for the next two to eight weeks. Business is going to suffer. Family events like weddings and funerals or birthday parties are best canceled. Education will be postponed, people will suffer financially but the quicker and more complete we isolate and quarantine the quicker the outbreak is over and the less damage it does. Hunker down, stay home, venture out for food, medical care, and little else. Some are fortunate to have a job like mine where dealing with people doesn't happen all day and those lucky few can continue on with work.
And what are we owed by our leaders? In a perfect world they would be completely honest with us but can we or they afford that? Panic is an ugly thing and most people get completely stupid and completely selfish at the first hint of shortages. From a governance point of view it is better to gradually introduce reality while at the same time slamming shut things like air travel and crowded events. As the old joke goes, grandma is on the roof.
The political outcome
Might not be so bad for conservatives and the Trump re election. Right now California, Florida, Colorado, and the states around New York/D.C. corridor are hardest hit. Those are liberal strongholds, the ones that screamed the loudest after Trump slammed the door on travel from China. Texas has 77 cases, close to the over 100 cases that the previous list of states have, so it might be a good idea to shut down the Red River crossings for a month. Trump himself has done an excellent job so far despite the bleating of the liberals and never Trumpers. Compared to Obama in the H1N1 pandemic in 2009 where we lost 12,000 people, Trump has done a stellar job. Obama knew about the problem in April and did nothing until late October.
State Cases Deaths Washington 607 40 New York 524 2 California 378 5 Massachusetts 123 0 Florida 110 4 Colorado 102 1 Louisiana 77 1 Texas 70 0 New Jersey 69 1 Illinois 66 0
What our state leaders should do
First, start using identity theft to justify deporting any illegals aliens that show up in the hospitals and drug stores. Might even add grocery stores to that list. You would see a dash for other states within hours of arresting the first illegals. Fewer cases of Wuhan virus, more supplies for citizens. In fact, within hours of announcing that law enforcement would be checking citizenship at the stores and medical facilities there would be stream of illegals running all different directions to get out of the state.
Second, shut down the damn Indian casinos. Those roads sure need attention on the highways coming into the casinos, might be unsafe, better block them off for a few weeks.
With that done focus on keeping the kids out of schools, not because they will die, but to prevent the spread of disease back to the parents and grandparents. No damn feeding programs for the school kids, their parents can feed them or face arrest for child endangerment and neglect.
If this goes on past a week or two, come up with a freeze in place plan. Freeze rent, mortgages, debt payments, even health insurance premiums. People can hunker down and get by paying for their food and utilities. Those that lived within their means and saved a bit back and prepared for disruptions will do fine. Those that didn't and lived paycheck to paycheck will learn a good lesson on living within their means.
