The Trump Strategy Needs To Be Followed

 The Trump Strategy Needs To Be Followed

Last week we saw so many conspiracy theories online and on social media and the worst were those people trying to convince others that we face some sort of totalitarian government response. As if telling people to try to stay home was like rounding them up in cattle cars and shipping them to concentration camps. Now most of these McDugle holes were simply raising a panic to push their agenda or to somehow proclaim themselves more astute or patriotic, pure virtue signalling.

But some people were buying the B.S. being pushed and STP was asked why our position was to respect the tough job the local and state authorities had to do and comply if at all possible. We received one particularly well thought out message on social media from a lady named Carol, we edited her message for brevity below:

There are many times I agree with you. I can't say that I do in this instance. I believe there is a virus and it is bad. I believe there are many who have it and some that have yet to test positive or that have yet to contract it. And yes, there will be some that die.

 

However, I don't believe we, as Americans, must give up our basic freedoms and liberties to fight this illness. It seems big, bad and scary - because that is what we're being told. I'm trying to figure out how THIS is different than when the H1N1 flu first rared it's ugly head. We had well over 1000 people dead before that administration even acknowledged its existence... and when they did, there wasn't the panic, hyperbole or reaction we have this time.

 

I truly believe some of what is being implemented might be somewhat of an overreaction. There is so much misinformation, so many outright lies and too much speculation. I've seen posted that police would stop people and ask for their papers. That is not true - yet it scares the hell out of many freedom-loving Americans. That rumor is so bad that my place of employment, deemed essential, issued papers for us to carry in our cars "just in case." UGH... I explained there was no need for this but the fact that 1) I didn't want to be part of this madness and 2) police and sheriff departments were posting they were not stopping people, it really didn't matter and was told it "could happen." It is a knee jerk reaction to the misinformation and panic gripping the public right now. This is America. We have a Constitution that should not be folded and put away just because of this virus.

 

I believe there can be a happy medium between protecting people and maintaining the freedoms our Forefathers thought were vitally important. As for Oklahoma, I honestly do not believe people are purposely putting others at risk. Many still have to go work every day, buy gas, purchase whatever food is left in the store, pick up prescriptions and the many other essentials of life. So there are folks out and about. To call these people names and blame them for continually spreading the virus is unfair.

 

If you really want to point fingers, then look to the first man who brought this crap back from China. What was so damned important that he had to travel to a disease-ridden country? Look to those who felt it necessary to jump onboard a floating petri-dish for "vacation," bring back this virus like a souvenir. Every day, we humans are faced with all sorts of viruses and illnesses that threaten our very existence. Fear and panic is the greater threat to that existence and humanity.

My response to the major points:

First, the idea that many of us have already had the virus. No, or you would have seen the hospitals filling up with the guaranteed percentage of serious cases on ventilators. The simple fact is that 80% of the infected would have mild symptoms, the other 20% would not and around 5% of these would be in the hospital in ICU on a ventilator. There was a very nasty strain of walking pneumonia going around in late December, I caught it and spent about two months beating it with antibiotics. Dozens of people have mentioned they had it too but not with the symptoms of high fever and breathing problems that Wuhan Flu brought.

The point about H1N1 being similar to Covid 19, that is not accurate. H1N1 was a disease that hit young people hard but about one third of those over 60 already had some anti bodies from being exposed to older versions of the H1N1 virus. Most of the cases were between 20 and 40 years old. This Wuhan Flu is a novel virus, which means a brand spanking new virus to humans.

• H1N1 had a hospitalization rate of around 1 hospitalized for ever 222 infected.  That is less than one half of once percent.
• Wuhan Flu has a hospitalization rate of around 1 hospitalized for every 6 infected, depending on which country you are in when you get it. That is 15%.
• H1N1 had a death rate of 1 in 22 hospitalized cases  or 4.5%  those  hospitalized .
• Wuhan Flu kills between 8% to 15% and even 40% of the hospitalized cases in some countries.

• H1N1 death rate was one death per 4876 infections or .02%, two one hundredths of a percent
• Wuhan Flu death rate is unknown but appears to be one to two deaths per 100 infection, two percent.

 That said, you can't figure mortality rates till the pandemic has run its course. If in some countries, 40% of the hospitalized cases are dying now it might be higher or lower once all the current cases resolve. I think it will be lower as they learn to fight the symptoms, people are drowning in their own blood and fluid from the body's reaction to the virus, the virus itself isn't killing them.

Someone pointed out that we had a good example, one of the cruise ships provided a chance to look at a closed set of case to determine transmission and mortality rates. Of 3700 on the ship, 700 were infected, 35 serious cases, 8 people died before the ship was cleared. The .002% death rate stats were being used as an example to tell people the response and lock downs are overreaction.

First, you cannot use the deaths/number of people on the ship. You have to use the deaths/number of infected. I have zero risk if I am on the ship and not infected and the social distancing the government is asking us to do is the same as quarantining people in their cabins on a cruise ship.

Using the cruise ship stats:

• the passengers had a 18.9% of being infected out of the total population of the 3700 people on the ship,
• then those infected had a 19% chance of having a serious case once  infected,
• and a 5% chance of it being critical which would be a ICU room, and all these percentages are of the infected, not the general population on the ship.

 If we apply these same stats to the 3.6 million people in Oklahoma:

• 18.9% infected would be 680,400 people with the virus.
• 19% of those infected would have serious or critical cases, 129,276 hospital beds would be needed.
• Of those 129,276 cases, 34,020 would be critical cases requiring ICU and most likely ventilators.
• there would be 1.14% deaths or 7756 people dead.

Now that is with the passengers quarantined in their cabins. Now lets assume our state government does nothing and everyone is exposed and 100% got the virus:

• 19% go to a hospital so 684,000 hospital beds are needed
• 5% go into ICU so 180,000 ICU beds and ventilators are needed
• 1.1% die so there would be 39,600 dead.

 Will I accept a 1.14% death rate in exchange for not declaring an emergency? Only if I get to pick the ones that get infected and die.

Now, I think I have established that this is different than H1N1 and yeah, Obama fumbled that case in his first year of office, April till October before he reacted and declared an emergency.

The over hype, yes there are idiots on Facebook posting crap about being asked for papers. Face it, Facebook is filled with attention whores who have nothing else in their lives so yeah they will compete for attention. Facebook also gives a platform to idiots, people with zero research skills much less the desire to check stuff before they pass it on. I believe it was Kirk Shelly that said never confuse evil with stupidity or incompetence. Sometimes you just cannot tell what motivates a person to commit evil acts.

Now, you complain about knee jerk reactions yet you fell for it or enough so that you were worried. How about stopping that? Verify before freaking out, pity those who don't, make fun of them as it is the only thing that will make them stop and reflect on their actions.

The Constitution is being put away. No it isn't Carol. You have a handful of people that are riding this horse as far as it will go. And example is Dollar Don, the OK2A leader, stirring up panic that some jerk town mayor might restrict gun sales so he can rake in some donations for his group. You have the liberals trying to panic you and once you are panicked their thinking is you will blame Trump.

And I researched the Constitution on this issue; there is no provisions for quarantine in the Constitution other than a reference to Habeas Corpus in times of invasion or rebellion, suspension of the same for the public safety. It has been done a handful of times in time of war, usually limited to areas adjacent to the battle field. It has been tried a few times to bully people and the courts swiftly knocked it down. You need a REAL emergency and a REAL purpose to do that.

We had public health emergencies in the days of our founding fathers and such matters were left up to the local governments and states. The power to quarantine came late to the U.S. federal government, in the late 1900's meaning the 1880 era, and it is federal law, not part of the Constitution. Yet SCOTUS has regulated the law and as I have already said, it is generally used judiciously and wisely. The damn fools that are claiming the Constitution is being disregarded are ignorant or blinded by their need to gain attention.

Now on that matter of the Constitution, people think our rights are without end and they are not. Rights tend to rub against each other and friction occurs and the court steps in and tries to throw out the bath water and keep the baby. It isn't always clear at first but other than a few cases in the last twenty years that I have doubt upon, SCOTUS generally gets things right when balancing our rights with the rights of others. Right now people go to work and leave their civil rights at the door of the job, freedom of speech, assembly, gun rights, the list is endless. You can be told what to wear at work, what you can and cannot discuss with co workers or customers, when to show up, when to leave, what your labor is worth to the company, they can even tell you to move to another state and you either obey or quit. I am sure we could discuss dozens of ways your rights are left at the door of the job. Military folks do that on steroids. So do cops. So do firemen. So do all first responders.

Specifically though, your right to swing your fist stops a few inches before my nose, actually further than that if you induce a fear of battery, we call that assault and it is a crime. In the same vein, in a public health emergency the government HAS to balance rights. If you have TB, your butt is going to be isolated and quarantined. If you have a STD, you are going to answer questions and give the names of your sex partners so they can be rounded up and tested. If you have been exposed to HIV you are free to have sex with others but you will go to jail if you don't warn people you have HIV.

In this case though, we are facing a difficult medical emergency, a virus that you can carry without symptoms, never knowing that you can infect others. And this is a novel virus, brand spanking new, no older versions that left behind antibodies or vaccines or protocols for curing patients. You tell me how the government can balance our rights against an unknown threat? So far I believe that state and national have been easy on the restrictions. New York has over half of the total cases in the nation and ought to have no flights coming out or going in and the borders ought to be sealed till we get an antibody test or a rapid result infection test.

Are people putting others at risk on purpose? Well, some have been arrested for doing just that or pranking that they were. Most probably have no intention of putting others at risk yet they are doing exactly that. Intent matters not. What matters is only that more people spread the virus and it explodes across the population. Does it matter that you killed someone by accident? To a point, yes, manslaughter charges instead of Murder One charges.

People are out and about spreading the virus, yes they are Carol. The thing is that the smart ones saw this coming and we bought our groceries and spare prescriptions weeks ago. Others have made a hobby out of preparing for things like this and were ridiculed for doing so. Still, as far as I am aware no U.S. citizen has been locked down and unable to go out for groceries or medicine and we WON'T unless we are irresponsible and continue to ignore the warnings and suggestions of our governments. Go get those groceries, use the sanitizing wipes at the entrance of the store, stay away from others, use the hand sanitizer you have in the car before you touch your face and better if you wait till you get home and scrub your hands before you scratch your nose. Or pick your nose if we are talking about Chris Kannady.  We don't want to talk about what McDugle might be doing with his hands.

Blaming others for being out and about and calling them names. I have had plenty to say about those that are denying this is a real health emergency because they are attention whores and they are encouraging others to ignore common sense and decency. They are putting YOUR parents and grand parents, if you are lucky enough to still have them, at risk. They are going on Spring Break, gathering at big churches, out at the big box stores getting remodeling materials. Not making a living, not getting essentials. Lt. Governor Matt Pinell did admit going to Florida for Spring Break, came back and promptly quarantined himself and now cannot do his job.

Those that brought this back to the U.S.. I had an overseas trip planned to Asia about a month ago but I canceled it at great expense. I am not stupid enough to go overseas after seeing this break out. Others were greedy, you read the sob stories about the travelers stuck overseas because their vacation plans were use it or lose it. Lose some money or lose your health or your life? Not a hard choice for me.

If you want to blame someone blame the Chinese Communist Party for knowingly allowing hundreds of thousands of infected Chinese to return to their jobs all over the world after the Chinese New Year. I import and export in multiple countries, every year the entire Chinese business world shuts down around the end of January and you won't be able to reach the suppliers till the middle of February, third week usually. Winnie the Flu knew that hundreds of thousands of Chinese would carry this virus across the world.

What kind of country infects their customers? One that has a plan to take advantage of the weakness caused by doing so. Watch the South China Sea very closely in the coming weeks.

If you want to blame anyone else blame the greedy American retailers that forced manufacturing overseas. I had a factory in the mid eighties. Around 40 people working for me, just a damn kid, around 24 years old. Factories were folding by the dozen in my town, machines were dirt cheap, thousands of trained workers available at cheap labor rates. So I was building up while others were shutting down and I learned why a few years later.

One day the Taiwanese currency tanked against the Dollar, dropped to half of what it was the day before or the week before. Suddenly I was selling against a product that was half the cost of my U.S. made product, the week before it was about ten percent cheaper and mine was far better quality.

A retailer in the 80's would take your product and mark it up 25 to 35% and be happy as pigs in slop. But the employment taxes and insurance on a worker in the early 80's were under about 8% at that time too and everything was reasonable priced including health insurance. Now employment taxes and work comp is three times that for most manufacturers and health insurance is beyond reach for vast swaths of American workers and employers.

The drop in the currency overseas was also matched by the Chinese opening up their country to trade. Before this the retailers that would by my product at $39.00 when the imported item was $35.00 because mine product was better. With the currency drop the imported product was $19.00, they could double their money and sell for less than I could deliver the product. What they did was keep the selling price the same and triple their money. And the faster they got the qualitu U.S. made products out of the showroom the faster the customer had no clue of the difference in quality.

Soon all the manufactures that were left in my small factory town were heading overseas or sourcing components overseas and merely assembling products from cheap quality overseas produced parts. Say bye bye to all of my business and eventually my factory and 40 employees plus another fifty or so that were producing American made materials, hardware, or supplies for my factory to keep us busy.

Research what Japan did in the couple of decades before WWII, they exported cheap labor products all over the world in order to build up their manufacturing capabilities and to weaken other countries by causing unemployment and a declining manufacturing base. China has done this so much more effectively that I have serious doubts we could win WWIII as we can no longer make the machines that make the machines that allow massive manufacturing of war materials.

Yes, we face all sorts of viruses and diseases but Carol, very few are brand new infection agents that we have ZERO antibodies or vaccines available. This one and Ebola are all that I can think of that are relatively new risks.

Look again at the hospitalization rates:

• For H1N1 for every 222 people infected only 1 went to the hospital.
• For every 4876 people infected only 1 died. That is .02%, two hundredths of one per cent.  Some would use .0002% assuming that 1 would be 100%.

 By comparison Wuhan Flu is vastly more deadly and vastly more intensive in medical resources to save anyone hospitalized..

• Wuhan Flu or CCP Virus sends about 5 to 15% to the hospital
• and kills around .5%  to 3% of the total infected.

 I believe it will ultimately wind up killing a half percent if we do not quarantine to flatten the curve. That would be 17,500 Oklahomans and that would be unacceptable..

Stay home if possible. If you have to go out to work or get supplies follow the government suggestions because if we as a people refuse to be responsible they will have no choice but to enact draconian measures.